Introducing the 2012 North Park Street election prediction contest. The rules are simple. Predict the winners of 9 swing states and 10 potentially uncertain Senate elections. The person with the most right wins. Since if more than 3 people enter, the likelihood of a tie is fairly great, the tie breaker is a prediction of the popular vote to the nearest tenth. Closest guess is determined by the sum of the differences between your guess and Obama and Romney’s actual percentages. For example, if you guess Obama wins 49.0 to 47.5 and he actually wins 49.5 to 47.5, your guess is off by a total of 1.0.
Because I needed to include at least one candidate that I actually voted for, you also are to guess the percentage of the popular vote that Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson receives. That number will also serve as the third tie breaker if needed.
The Senate tie breaker is popular vote totals in the Wisconsin Senate race, so that we can also declare a winner of the Senate prediction contest.
As always there are no prizes other than any you can make up for yourself, such as pride.
Counting on the good faith efforts of the NPS community not to change other people’s predictions we are going to use a publicly editable Google spreadsheet for the contest. Remember, it saves a record of who makes what changes.